More than a year after the European Commission unveiled a €6 billion growth plan for the Western Balkans, progress on disbursing funds has been markedly uneven, with political instability cited as the principal barrier to many countries accessing the money.
Three beneficiaries, two in crisis
Only Montenegro, Albania and North Macedonia have secured more than one reform-linked payment under the scheme, designed to speed up accession by tying financial support to economic, institutional and rule-of-law reforms and to allow gradual access to parts of the EU single market. Several other partners have either received small pre-financing sums or none at all.
Kosovo received a pre-financing tranche of €61.8 million in April, but an ongoing political crisis lasting some 18 months has hampered its capacity to enact the laws and reforms required by the plan. The Kosovan government has warned that it recently missed targets, reportedly costing the country an estimated €40 million in potential payments due by the end of June, and that it could forfeit up to €250 million by year-end if a functioning government cannot approve the necessary measures.
“The growth plan is the Western Balkans’ accelerator into the European family,”
The European Commission’s enlargement commissioner used such language when promoting the initiative during visits to the region, but analysts and regional experts say expectations have not been fully realised.
Bosnia and Herzegovina left behind
Bosnia and Herzegovina has not completed any reforms under the scheme and so remains ineligible to draw down funds. According to figures cited by regional commentators, Bosnia has already forfeited €108 million and risks losing more than €370 million by the end of the year if delays continue. EU foreign policy officials have warned that further postponements will translate directly into additional funding losses.
In both Kosovo and Bosnia, observers point to political paralysis as the central obstacle: executive and legislative stalemates prevent the adoption of the specific measures that unlock tranche payments.
Questions about durability of reforms
Beyond the immediate financial consequences, the implementation record raises broader questions about whether governments are pursuing sustainable reform or simply meeting short-term conditions to secure payments. One analyst, from a Belgrade-based policy centre, argued the scheme has "underdelivered" on its promise to bring socioeconomic convergence and easier single market access.
The conditionality mechanism was marketed as a way to both incentivise reforms and offer tangible near‑term benefits, but the mixed outcomes suggest political dynamics in each capital remain decisive. Where governments are stable and committed, progress has been evident; where political crises persist, states face both reform stagnation and material losses.
Implications for EU enlargement policy
The uneven take-up and the risk of substantial forfeitures will place pressure on Brussels to reassess the mechanics of conditionality and the political realities in candidate and potential candidate countries. For governments in the region, the immediate task is procedural and political: re-establish functioning executive capacities capable of adopting the laws the Commission requires.
- €6 billion — total size of the EU growth plan for the Western Balkans.
- Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia — only countries to secure more than one reform-linked payment so far.
- Kosovo — received €61.8m pre-financing; may lose €40m already and up to €250m by year-end if deadlock persists.
- Bosnia and Herzegovina — has forfeited €108m and could forfeit over €370m more by year-end.
| Country | Payments/Status | Reported forfeitures |
|---|---|---|
| Montenegro | More than one payment | — |
| Albania | More than one payment | — |
| North Macedonia | More than one payment | — |
| Kosovo | €61.8m pre-financing; reforms blocked by political crisis | €40m reported; up to €250m possible |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | No reforms completed; ineligible for funds | €108m forfeited; >€370m possible |
The coming months will be telling. If political impasses are resolved and legislatures adopt the required measures, further tranche releases could vindicate the Commission’s conditional approach. If not, the scheme risks both financial shortfalls for partner states and reputational damage for Brussels’ enlargement strategy.
